*NOTE* - Written on Nov. 9th, 2016. Put the final touches on it on the date shown.
By: David Decoteau
We all just witnessed a perfect storm last night. The planets had to align in such an unlikely way, that I doubt we will ever see anything like this again in our lifetime.
- Donald never led in the polls. Never. Not once. So that meant that people on the Democrat side figured it was in the bag. This allowed them to look down the road to the Hilary Presidency, instead of staying in the moment. That cost votes.
- The Democrats who did keep their eye on the ball, were secretly split. They wanted a Democrat to win, but the Democrat many of them liked (Bernie) had been offhandedly vanquished using the filthy "super delegate" system of the DNC. This left a bad taste in the mouth of these folks (rightfully so) and that taste, translated into less votes for Hilary. This exact same thing happened on the RNC side of the equation in 2012, but it was less obvious, and less covered by the press. So we didn't learn from that experience.
- Because the Polls showed a clear win for Hilary, many voters who fancied themselves "knowledgable" and "savvy" tried to balance the ticket by voting for Republicans in the down ballot races to offset Executive branch power, and provide a check to unbridled power of the President. Instead, what happened was those folks created the one sided equation we woke up to this morning. I'm admitting right now to being part of this group of people. I outsmarted myself.
- The abandonment of the Republicans helped Trump. Most republicans hate the present state of the republican party. When the "establishment" republicans abandoned Trump, that allowed true conservatives, NeoCons, and even some Libertarians to say, "Well, if the Republicans hate him, then he must be doing something right." That logic allowed some folks, who would have never backed him in another set of cirumstances to hold their nose and vote for him - not as a republican candidate, but as a signal to their own party that it was on the wrong track.
The SJW effect
- The militant factors of the left, felt the election was in the bag (rightfuly). As a result, the rhetoric of the Social Justice Warriors, had been cranked up to "11" in the final months of the election cycle. So much so, that I think even some on the left were finding it distasteful. At this point, the left had a complete and total misunderstanding of Donald Trump, and an appeal that allowed him to turn out voters. Instead of treating him seriously, each day everyone (and I mean everyone, left and right) took turns badmouthing him, making fun of him, being outraged by him and underestimating him. But instead of that ridicule becoming a reason for dismissal of a candidate (as is traditional), those dismissive feelings somehow started getting transferred to a rationale for some to consider him a "protest vote". Before long, it was two groups of people claiming moral high ground and hurling insults at the other group. These insults were based in a complete disregard for getting to understand the other person and their position. And the result was many "protesting" to the anger, by voting for Trump.
NO WAY Trump planned any of this.
In the end, that polarization, combined with the other unlikely factors mentioned above was enough to create this perfect storm of unlikely mutations which built a path to a sweeping victory for Republican.
100% dumb luck. But, one rule I live my life by is, "If I can't be smart, I hope I'm lucky!" Let's hope his luck holds out for the next 4 years.